The Life Puzzles Series: Piece 8

When you hear the word forecast, what comes to mind?

Sales, stock market, health, or something else?
I have a hunch; most of us have the same initial thought: Weather! If you are spending Christmas in South Florida, the forecast is sunny. If you are having Thanksgiving in Hilo, Hawaii, it is rainy. And if you are in Anchorage, Alaska, it is cloudy. Here, I state these forecasts as facts. But are they?

I debate the reliability of weather forecasts with my mom frequently. She seeks them out, and based on what she learns, she makes plans. On the other hand, I am skeptical of weather forecasts! Of course, if a storm is forecasted, I will seek shelter – promptly! But barring extreme cases, I think most are up for interpretation. For this reason, if I plan to go to the beach next week and the weather forecast predicts rain, I will not cancel my plans. Instead, I might make a backup plan – just in case! I do not rely wholly on weather forecasts because I have fallen prey to many inaccurate ones. Perhaps you can relate!

For example, several weeks ago, with the start of the Fall season, the forecast predicted chilly weather. Therefore, I did what most of us do at the end of summer: I set aside my summer wardrobe and brought out my fall wardrobe. But to my dismay, it has been tremendously hot and humid over the last couple of weeks, causing me to seek out my summer clothing – again! For some, this might be inconsequential. But to me, it is a poor use of time, and as I shared last week, I prefer to avoid that. 😉

The weight of a forecast

Jokes aside, recently, I have been thinking about forecasts because they profoundly affect our choices and lives. But what we do when we receive one, especially from one we do not know personally, is even more intriguing! Without knowing much more than the name of a meteorologist, we pay attention to what they predict and allow their words to determine our plans. – If they predict sunshine, we rejigger our travel itinerary, remove our windcheaters, and fill our suitcase with tank tops. Essentially, we make plans, often well into the future, based on what a stranger says!

In more than one case, I have experienced this puzzling phenomenon as a bridesmaid, a role I have played many times. For one of the weddings, two months before the wedding date, the bride learned rain was forecasted. Swiftly, she altered her dream wedding plans! Notably, given the time horizon, it was a long-range weather forecast with an approximately 50% accuracy rate. But like many brides before and after her, she made a big decision based on a word from a stranger. – This is the power of forecasts: they set our expectations and move us to action!

The power of expectation

Ironically, meteorologists are not the only people who make forecasts. We are all forecasters: Not for the weather but for our future. Here, we only predict one of two outcomes – success or failure. And upon the expected outcome, we plot our life story. – We determine whether to apply for a job or not. Extend a helping hand or hold back. Make a friend or keep our distance. Invest or divest. If we anticipate a victorious end to a project, we give it all we’ve got. If we anticipate a relationship will fail, we do not pour our best into it.
Moreover, these seemingly small decisions bear a lot of weight because what we expect in our future influences our actions today. And there is a direct link between what we expect and how much we choose to give. Soberingly, often, we do not win or fail because of our capabilities or the lack thereof. Instead, we win or fail based on what we expect.

Notably, I am not referring to affective forecasting or the process of predicting your future emotions. I am referring to forecasting your future – not the future of the world but yours. Or, in my case, mine. Forecasting your future refers to what you believe your future holds. And correspondingly, how you feel, what you think, and what you choose to do. – An unshakeable belief that your future is bright enables you to endure discomfort, face, and triumph over fear. However, a negative expectation deters you from rising and trying again when you fall!

Friend, I leave you with a question I often ponder in solitude: What are your dreams, and what do you expect in your future?

Until next time!

For you and to you,
Aké

Image credit: Pixabay | EvgeniT